SERIE A - (9-Dec-2006) - 3 for saturday

themadactuarian · Dec 7, 2006

Greetings,

Saturday, December 9th (The early game)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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Ascoli at REGGINA<o></o>
Reggina boasts a decent home record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss suffered at the hands of <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1

lace>Catania</st1

lace></st1:City>. Included in those 3 wins was the very impressive 1-0 victory over Roma. Reggina is typical of many of the lower pack Serie A teams…play well at home, poor performances on the road. Ascoli has been brutal period; their road performance has produced just 2 draws in seven attempts. Sooner or later they will win a game, probably on home turf, and in my opinion not this week in Reggina, who should build on last week decent performance, earning a 1-1 draw at<o

></o

>
Udinese. I have no choice, but to select <st1:City><st1

lace>Reggina</st1

lace></st1:City>, even if I must spot the half goal.<o

></o

>
The play: Reggina -0.5 -121 (4 units)<o></o>
<o

> </o

>
Saturday,December 9th (The night game)<o

></o

>
<st1

lace>Livorno</st1

lace> at <st1:City><st1

lace>PALERMO</st1

lace></st1:City><o></o>
In last week’s selection of <st1:City><st1

lace>Parma</st1

lace></st1:City> +0.5 against <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City>, I began to point out that <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City> would was about to embark in a state of deflation (or change in luck).<o

></o

>
All good teams go through it, and only great teams can avoid it, case in point with Inter Milan. The last three games have seen <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City> produce a mere 1 goal on the offensive front; prior to that, they had won 5 straight while scoring a very impressive 12 goals. <st1

lace>Livorno</st1

lace>, on the other hand, is a model of consistency, which is reflected by the fact that they have yet to lose 2 consecutive games. On the defensive front, they are highly deceptive. When they are within the positive side of their <st1:date Month="4" Day="4" Year="2002">4-4-2</st1:date> scheme, teams have come to realize that they are very difficult to score against.<o

></o

>
Just look at the 14 game they played so far: 8 games with zero goals allowed, 4 games with 2, and one each with 3 and 4 goals allowed. I am somewhat disappointed in their 2-nil loss at home to Chievo last week. Nonetheless, what is impressive about <st1

lace>Livorno</st1

lace> is how they bounce back from defeat on the following week (three times this year, following a defeat, <st1

lace>Livorno</st1

lace> has come back to hold opponents to 0 goals, and this will be the fourth attempt). <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City> may want this victory badly, especially when they look ahead and see that Roma is next on the schedule, at L’Olimpico…..<o

></o

>
<st1

lace>Livorno</st1

lace> has the disciplined defensive core to frustrate, and stifle, the very offensive minded <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City>.<o

></o

>
The plays:<o></o>
<st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> +0.5 and +1 -107 (4 units)<o></o>
<st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> UNDER 2.5 -108 (5 units)<o></o>
<o

> </o

>
Cheers,<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
MA<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
<o

></o

>

snoop · Dec 7, 2006

I'm tailing you on Reggina...........

themadactuarian · Dec 8, 2006

Snoop,

Serie A thoughts to consider:

So far, the 14 weeks of Serie A have produced the following goal outputs:
W1:31
W2:21
W3:27
W4:23
W5:19
W6:24
W7:21
W8:31
W9:24
W10:20
W11:32
W12:27
W13:28
W14:21
W15: should the minor trend continue, you could potentially envision a 30+ goal output, which equates to an average of 3 goals per game for the
10 games on the schedule. There are a couple of games which I’m looking at for Sunday which point to strong under candidates: Inter Milan at EMPOLI, and Roma at LAZIO. Inter and Roma are two prolific scoring machines, with strong tendencies on the over (just look at their goal average for the last seven weeks, 2.4 for Inter, and 3 for Roma…very impressive. Yet, what has me leaning on the unders for these two is the following:
Both played in champions league this week and might tire down in the second half. Empoli is coached by a defensive master. Only twice this year have they conceded more than 1 goal, and their 10 goals against is the league’s best. Will they be looking to upset Inter? Probably. Can they get it done….there is a small chance. I don’t envision Inter losing more 3 games for the entire campaign.
Regardless of where they reside in the standings, whenever Roma and Lazio square off, you can count on a bloody affair. Lazio’s recent surge has them playing good football, with one loss in the last six matches. Do they have the weaponry to get it done against Roma? I doubt it, but they will make it very difficult for them (have conceded only 3 goals on home turf). If Totti is absent again, this game’s under the 2.5 goals becomes even more valuable. Will wait and see what happens between Empoli and Inter, as that result could also contribute to the importance of this game...
Now, if one is to play on the unders, by going against the prolific scoring trends of Palermo, Roma, and Inter, who will "pickup the slack", if one is to envision a 30 something goal scoring week? I have isolated a few candidates that are worthy contenders….will wait for the saturday games to end, before playing these.

MA

Zeppelin · Dec 8, 2006

Palermo will win this, Roma is getting too close in standings :niceback: :Guitarman

k:

themadactuarian · Dec 8, 2006

it's okay...at least we both agree on Led Zeppelin.

themadactuarian · Dec 8, 2006

hmmm...

yesterday:Empoli +0.5 and +1 +101
today: Empoli +0.5 and +1 -106

jwblue · Dec 8, 2006

the mad actuarian said:
hmmm...

yesterday:Empoli +0.5 and +1 +101
today: Empoli +0.5 and +1 -106

Do you put a lot of stock in a 7 cent move on the vig?

IS

themadactuarian · Dec 8, 2006

InSpades said:
Do you put a lot of stock in a 7 cent move on the vig?

IS

IS<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice

ffice" /><o

></o

>
<o

> </o

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No, not particularly. If I saw that same vig move on Inter, it would just have confirmed my belief that many will be betting on them. The fact that the move is on Empoli, is conforting reassurance that I won’t be the only one to back the home dog against Serie A’s best team. Same could be said about <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City>; if you did not follow Serie A, but wanted to play one game, it would not take you long to scan the card and decide on <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City> and <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City> over, as it looks so blatantly obvious. Right? (I have a feeling that those on this forum, who are considering a strong play in Serie A, will jump on <st1:City><st1

lace>Palermo</st1

lace></st1:City>, or the over, or both). Sorry, I will probably be on the other side, holding two live grenades (<st1:City><st1

lace>Parma</st1

lace></st1:City> in my left, and Empoli in the right).<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
Best of luck to you,<o

></o

>
<o

> </o

>
MA<o

></o

>

COYOTEBLUE · Dec 9, 2006

Like Your Livorno Selection And The Under As I Can Easily See A 1-1 Draw In This Game ...

Gl On Your Selections ...

2white · Dec 9, 2006

Ciao Bello !

Good choice w Empoli, i'm with u on this one.
Happy cuz Juve won again. BUONA FORTUNA w ROMA tomorrow
u guys deserve the scudetto this year !!!:toast:

themadactuarian · Dec 9, 2006

the mad actuarian said:
Greetings,

Saturday, December 9th (The early game)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Ascoli at REGGINA<o></o>
Reggina boasts a decent home record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss suffered at the hands of <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Catania</st1lace></st1:City>. Included in those 3 wins was the very impressive 1-0 victory over Roma. Reggina is typical of many of the lower pack Serie A teams…play well at home, poor performances on the road. Ascoli has been brutal period; their road performance has produced just 2 draws in seven attempts. Sooner or later they will win a game, probably on home turf, and in my opinion not this week in Reggina, who should build on last week decent performance, earning a 1-1 draw at<o></o>
Udinese. I have no choice, but to select <st1:City><st1lace>Reggina</st1lace></st1:City>, even if I must spot the half goal.<o></o>
The play: Reggina -0.5 -121 (4 units)<o></o>
<o></o>
Saturday,December 9th (The night game)
REGGINA 2 Ascoli 1 (4 units)
<st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> at <st1:City><st1lace>PALERMO</st1lace></st1:City><o></o>
In last week’s selection of <st1:City><st1lace>Parma</st1lace></st1:City> +0.5 against <st1:City><st1lace>Palermo</st1lace></st1:City>, I began to point out that <st1:City><st1lace>Palermo</st1lace></st1:City> would was about to embark in a state of deflation (or change in luck).<o></o>
All good teams go through it, and only great teams can avoid it, case in point with Inter Milan. The last three games have seen <st1:City><st1lace>Palermo</st1lace></st1:City> produce a mere 1 goal on the offensive front; prior to that, they had won 5 straight while scoring a very impressive 12 goals. <st1lace>Livorno</st1lace>, on the other hand, is a model of consistency, which is reflected by the fact that they have yet to lose 2 consecutive games. On the defensive front, they are highly deceptive. When they are within the positive side of their <st1:date Year="2002" Day="4" Month="4">4-4-2</st1:date> scheme, teams have come to realize that they are very difficult to score against.<o></o>
Just look at the 14 game they played so far: 8 games with zero goals allowed, 4 games with 2, and one each with 3 and 4 goals allowed. I am somewhat disappointed in their 2-nil loss at home to Chievo last week. Nonetheless, what is impressive about <st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> is how they bounce back from defeat on the following week (three times this year, following a defeat, <st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> has come back to hold opponents to 0 goals, and this will be the fourth attempt). <st1:City><st1lace>Palermo</st1lace></st1:City> may want this victory badly, especially when they look ahead and see that Roma is next on the schedule, at L’Olimpico…..<o></o>
<st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> has the disciplined defensive core to frustrate, and stifle, the very offensive minded <st1:City><st1lace>Palermo</st1lace></st1:City>.
PALERMO 3 Livorno 0 (-9.68 units)<o></o>
The plays:<o></o>
<st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> +0.5 and +1 -107 (4 units)<o></o>
<st1lace>Livorno</st1lace> UNDER 2.5 -108 (5 units)<o></o>
<o></o>
Cheers,<o></o>
<o></o>
MA<o></o>
<o></o>
<o></o>

Stabbed at the 80th minute.
After 1-0 nil lead by Palermo (2 minutes in), only one side on the offensive front for the rest of the game...Livorno. Doubt any one saw this match (except me). With 10 cents to play, Guidolin removes Amauri for Caracciolo, goal scorer for goal scorer. Keeps the boys on the offensive front, to prove what I have yet to figure out....sick bastard..hope you
try that crap next sunday...

W1 - L2 (-5.68 units for saturday)